悄然結束的四年之約

10/17 那天去了一趟日本旅遊，就在飛機抵達北海道旭川機場的同時，四年之約悄然結束。就跟當初開始工作一樣，一切在忙碌中開始，也不知不覺在忙碌中劃下句點。

我還保存著，2003 年底投履歷找國防役時，與一些公司面試主管的往來信件。當初面試過不少家公司，也拿到一些 offer，看著這些當時的信件，想起四年前的迷惘與困惑。

『to consider what you want to do and what you want to be in the coming 4 years』

這是當初一個面試主管寫給我的話，這四年來我從沒忘記過這句話，雖然從一開始，我對這四年的計畫依舊沒有一個清楚的輪廓，這就樣一路跌跌撞撞走過來。

四年過去了，當初的選擇究竟好不好，不妨來做個回顧。當初所考量的這些公司，在這四年中究竟有沒有向上提升，抑或是向下沈淪？我以年度市值（當年度最高與最低的平均）做為參考，製作以下的圖表：

市值成長表


市值成長趨勢圖


這四年的總體檢，對比 2004 年的市值，這些公司究竟有沒有創造價值？抑或是隨著時間的流逝，逐漸喪失自己原本的競爭優勢？

雖然這陣子股市狀況很不好，但值此全球金融風暴的陰影下，還是有兩家公司可以創造出高於 70% 的市值增長。兩家公司幾乎回到原點，更有一家公司，這四年來的市值是每況愈下。

這四年來也碰到過一些學弟，對他們的想法有些感觸。所謂的工作生涯，應該不光是這家公司薪水多五千，那家公司少給幾張股票，這樣單純而且短視的想法。拉長時間來看，如果一家公司能夠長期穩定成長，那麼思考如何將自己的職涯規劃跟這樣的公司做一個良好的契合，對自己對公司都能發揮良好的綜效。

四年前我很迷惘，不知所措，甚至愚蠢到跑去廟裡求籤。結果不抽還好，抽了三支籤，三支都是好籤，而且一支比一支好。我更加迷惘了，有抽跟沒抽一樣。

最後我選擇的，是相較之下，比較差的那支籤。四年過去，我學到很多東西，也成長不少，對這樣的結果還算可以接受。或許選擇的本身並不重要，重要的是選擇之後，該去做些什麼，好讓當初的選擇變的值得。

『事迷心不迷，路寬心不寬』一語道盡這四年的零零種種。

Buy American. I Am.

By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
　
Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

員工滿意度

前陣子公司進行了一項員工滿意度調查，最近則是把調查的結果拿出來檢討，並且從上到下，陸陸續續在各個 team 中舉辦 world cafe 來探討員工滿意度中可待改進的地方，並且提出可行的方案。

聽說上次舉辦員工滿意度調查是在四年多以前。不論如何，很高興公司開始注重『員工滿意度』這項公司營運指標。

相對於財務績效（EPS、股東權益報酬率）這類落後指標，『顧客滿意度』、『員工滿意度』在公司經營的體檢表上，屬於領先指標。落後指標只是成績單，反應過去的績效，當財務報表出爐的時候，過去的一個會計年度早已經結束。只有領先指標，才是真正影響下一個會計年度的績效關鍵。

不過就像父母去跟小孩調查『子女滿意度』一樣，再多的福利都不嫌少。討論著討論著，往往會把氣氛帶往比較負面的方向。這次的 PGOM 特別舉辦了一次『我們為什麼能夠嬴過競爭對手？』為題的 world cafe，洋洋灑灑的討論出一堆大家認為的理由。

有趣的是，許多大家抱怨的地方，卻往往也是公認公司的強項與優勢。許多公司常在不經意中，就這麼改著改著，把自己的競爭優勢也這麼改掉了（員工都希望工作穩定，結果往往導致組織龐大遲鈍）。兩相併陳，才能在兩者之間取得一個好的折衷。

然而實務上，真正擁有開放的觀念，調查出內部真正的聲音，後續可大刀闊斧的進行後續追蹤改善的企業其實是很少見的。礙於企業文化、公司高層支持度、勞資關係等綜合因素，組織是否能夠接受「真實的聲音」與真正願意接受並「持續改善」才是關鍵。

一個沒有持續進行後續改善的「員工滿意度調查專案」，反而會降低員工的工作士氣。

戚樹誠教授在他的著作『組織行為』中有一些關於員工滿意度的文字，我覺得寫的蠻好的：

* 不要認為每一個表現不佳的員工都會對工作不滿足。反之，不要認定每個表現佳的員工都會滿足於工作。
* 即使員工的工作滿足不會影響他的工作表現，也不能輕忽工作滿足的重要性。因為，即便如此，工作滿足也會影響員工的心理健康。
* 不要認為常缺勤的員工都是對工作不滿足或是失去興趣，實際上有可能是心有餘而力不足。
* 員工缺勤的頻率是需要被管理的，但切記不能以根除為目標。有時候，某些程度內的缺勤，對員工或者是組織都是有益的。
* 正視員工離職的優缺點。特別注意那些離職員工的工作表現，並且仔細分析這些員工離職的成本與效益，作為未來管理上的參考。

一個人對於工作的滿足感或許不會直接帶來高的工作績效，不過他將增強員工表現出組織公民行為的程度。